Labor Market In Freefall As Job Openings Slide, Quits Tumble To 2 Year Low

OPINION:  This article contains commentary which may reflect the author’s opinion

The third term of Barack Obama being served out by Joe Biden is doing what it was designed to do, fundamentally transform (and destroy) the country.

For months, some economy watchers have been warning that the DOL’s (Department of Labor) JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) report’s controlled, seasonally adapted, and politically motivated job openings data is complete nonsense at a time when the US economy is hurtling into a deep recession.

And today we received yet further indication of just how painful the labor market’s reacquaintance with gravity and mean reversion will be, one month after we witnessed an epic, long-deserved impact in the number of artificially inflated February job listings.

In March, there were only 9.590 million job openings, the lowest number since April 2022 and a decrease of 384K from the upwardly revised February print. This was despite the consensus expecting only a slight decline after the February collapse and a sharp downward revision in January. The three-month reduction in job opportunities was the second-largest on record when combined with the significant drops in January (-671K) and February (-589K).

After a monumental 27 beats in the previous 29 months, the March job openings number significantly below projections of a 9.736MM print. This marks the second consecutive huge miss in what seems to be a protracted and severe series of misses as mean reversion renews itself.

“According to the BLS, the largest decreases in job openings were in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-144,000) but increased in educational services (+28,000),” Zero Hedge reported.

The long overdue plunge in job openings means that there are now just 3.751 million more jobs than unemployed workers, down sharply from last month’s 5.5 million number at the end of 2022, and the lowest since Sept 2021.

Said otherwise, there were just 1.64 job openings for every unemployed worker, down from 1.67 last month and over 2 at the record high in March 2022. Needless to say, this number still has a ways to drop to revert to its pre-covid levels around 1.20, but the trend is now clearly lower.

There was a modest silver lining in that after plunging in February (by 327K), the number of hires in March dipped by just 1K to 6.149MM, led by a decline in real estate and rental and leasing (-29,000).

Nonetheless, there was additionally more bad news in the quit rate indicator, which demonstrates employee confidence in quitting a job in search of one with a higher salary: in March, the quit rate fell by 129K to just 3.851 million, the lowest level since May 2021. The BLS reports that there were fewer resignations in the lodging and food services sector (-178,000).

What should we make of these terrible statistics, which Goldman Sachs, the NFIB, and others—including UBS—have been stressing is far past due?

The explanation is straightforward: there was a significant decline, but the actual number of opportunities is still significantly smaller because almost half of them, or about 70%, are based on speculation. Nothing is as awful as the JOLTS report, where the real response rate has dropped to an all-time low of 31%, as the BLS itself acknowledges even if the response rate to most of its numerous labor (and other) surveys has crashed in recent years.

In a nutshell, about 70% of the total number of employment opportunities is based on an estimate.

Is this administration’s Labor Department filling the estimate gap with data that is higher or lower so that Biden can keep up the false appearance that at least the employment sector is strong while everything else under his watch in the economy is imploding?

Dangerous centralized banking is on the minds of many Americans as they see this week’s headlines about the second-largest US bank plummeting into failure and as they weigh and measure the rescue plans.

The question is whether what is happening to the banking industry in the US is a notable ‘revolution of massive irresponsibility’ of the nation’s bankers, civil servants, and politicians or if the country is at the end of a Democrat Joe Biden-planned Chinese Communist takeover.

One thing is simple to see, that if the Democrats were not in charge right now our security would not be in so much turmoil everywhere.

Whatever is happening to our nation and our personal banking future, the result is the same – the American people have been betrayed and will be made to suffer, except for the well-connected and elite power seekers.

One looks no further than to the government’s plan to fix the mess we are in. They are going to give the messed up bank to a massive, powerful banking player.

According to the Daily Mail, “late last month, the credit ratings firm Moody’s also downgraded 11 regional banks, including Zions Bank, Western Alliance Bank and Bank of Hawaii. The firm specifically cited fears over commercial real estate portfolios, with midsize banks bearing the brunt of high interest rates and stress in the market.”

The stage is set and well into the first act, it is evident that the “Great Reset” is proceeding and picking up speed. Banking crisis after crisis and the steady rise of digital currency, as well as the dawn of a government app for money transfer, has analysts proclaiming more is ahead.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.






Send this to a friend