The “most accurate economist in the world” predicted that Republicans would regain control of Congress in a “clean sweep” and that former President Donald Trump would win on election day.
Securities for the Market Christophe Barraud, Monaco’s chief strategist and economist, also predicted that U.S. growth will pick up speed following the election.
“Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: [1] #Trump victory [2] #GOP clean sweep,” he wrote on X.
According to Fox News, Bloomberg has consistently ranked Barraud as the top U.S. economic forecaster since 2012.
Barraud stated that the economy would expand, but he cautioned that if Congress is divided and Vice President Kamala Harris is elected, yields may decline. This is due to the fact that a Republican victory has already been priced into the market. Additionally, he predicted that it will fall.
Barraud told Business Insider that if Trump wins and Congress is divided, he might not be able to lower taxes for individuals and companies. Trump stated that he will concentrate on taxes, which may cause global development to stagnate.
Trump may focus on his domestic promises rather than his foreign ones and cut taxes for individuals and businesses if he receives a majority of Republican votes.
According to him, it would provide a 2.1% to 2.3% short-term boost to the GDP in 2025. According to Barraud, Trump runs the risk of increasing the national debt if he lowers taxes without a plan to cover the difference.
Under Trump, the initial rate on a 10-year Treasury bond would increase from roughly 4.23% to 4.5%. He believes it will rise to roughly 5% after the Republicans win.
According to Nate Silver’s most recent forecast, Trump may win every significant split state in the 2024 election.
According to Silver’s analysis, Trump’s chances of winning each of the seven swing states in November are 24.4%. This is the most probable result. Harris has a 15.6% probability of winning every battleground state, according to the estimate.
Additionally, it indicates that if Harris were to win every swing state—aside from Arizona and Georgia, where Trump now leads—she would win the race. However, according to his model, this is just 1.7% likely to occur. However, there is a 2.9% chance that the Democrats will win Arizona but not Georgia, and a 3.4% chance that Harris will win Georgia but not Arizona.
With the exception of Nevada, where Harris is currently leading by a slim margin, the model indicates that there is a 4.6% chance that the Republicans will win every swing state. Since the vice president would receive 232 electoral college votes in this scenario, Trump would win the election.
According to Silver’s overall forecast, Harris has the best chance of winning when Democrats take control of three to five of the crucial states. If the vice president were to win only Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, she would need to get that many electoral college votes. Overall, there represents an 86.2 percent chance of winning.
According to polls, Harris is leading in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, while Trump is leading in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. In Pennsylvania, the former president leads by 0.2 points, according to a FiveThirtyEight tracker, but a Silver tracker reports a tie.
According to Silver’s projection, if Harris wins just Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, her chances of winning the race are 0.6%. She has a 98.9 percent probability if she wins Pennsylvania. However, according to Silver’s model, the likelihood of this improbable occurrence occurring is only 2.9%.
Expectations for the electoral college have shifted over the past two weeks, indicating that Trump has a higher chance of winning than Harris. For instance, Harris believes that Trump has a 46.6% chance of winning the Electoral College vote, whereas Silver now believes that Trump has a 53.1% chance.
Additionally, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast has shifted in Trump’s favor. It now indicates that Harris has a 49% chance of winning the election, compared to Trump’s 51% likelihood. Trump will win all four swing states, according to RealClearPolitics, giving him 312 Electoral College votes to Harris’s 227.
This comes after Trump was ranked higher than Harris in four national polls released this month.
The race is still quite close. “The race has gone from almost a toss-up to definitely a toss-up,” last week told Newsweek Jon Parker, a senior lecturer in American studies at Keele University in the U.K. He did say, though, that this “does not mean that either campaign is winning or losing.”